Last week, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its fourth economic and revenue forecasts of the 2023-2025 biennium. 

The economic and revenue outlook is stable.  Oregon’s consumption-based revenues are tracking the forecast closely in recent months while the outlooks for these types of taxes are all being lowered. Personal income taxes tracked above forecasts, and the forecast has been raised due to the economic outlook. Corporate taxes are tracking closely to forecasts. 

Expected General Fund revenues have increased by $532 million over the March forecast – largely due to personal income tax collections. The 2021-2023 ending balance now projects at $1.17 billion following the 2024 legislative session and forecast changes.   

After another strong year of collections in 2023, traditional corporate income and excise taxes have nearly tripled over the past 5 years.   

The underlying economic forecast remains relatively unchanged with higher interest rates expected to weigh on wage growth going forward.       

Now to the numbers: 

As stated previously, combined General Fund revenues have increased by $532 million relative to the March forecast. Projected Lottery resources are down $0.5 million from the March forecast.  

Personal income tax revenue is up $547.4 (2.6%) million from the 2023 Close of Session forecast (COS). Corporate revenue is up $588.0 million (26.4%) from the 2023 Close of Session forecast. General Fund gross revenue is up $1.17 billion (4.6%) from the COS. Net General Fund and Lottery gross revenue is up $1.71 billion (5.1%) from the COS. 

A personal kicker is expected - $582.2 million for 2025, and the corporate kicker is projected to be $588 million which would be dedicated to K-12 education in 2025.