Last week, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its sixth economic and revenue forecasts of the 2023-2025 biennium. 

 From an economic perspective we are doing well – the outlook is stable. Currently, we are experiencing 2.5% to 3% inflation, with a 2% inflation rate being ideal. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates starting next month, which should help in expanding the economy.  

However, we also have seen some significant layoffs in higher wage industries in Oregon like in the technology sector and athletic footwear industry. We also expect further layoffs in the future in these industries and in the wood products industry. Layoffs are never good but when you consider there are 2 million jobs in Oregon a few thousand layoffs here and there are relatively small in the overall outlook.  However, the wood products industry layoffs have big impacts on the local economy of those communities. 

This wildfire season has been different than previous years. There has been less infrastructure damage but the damage to agriculture has been significant. In just five counties (Malheur, Baker, Harney, Umatilla, and Morrow), many cattle and a lot of livestock feed has been lost. These counties represent 31% of agriculture products sold in the state.  

Tax returns and personal income tax receipts have exceeded expectations. Corporate excise and income taxes remain strong. 

Projected 2023-2025 net General Fund Resources are up $675.5 million (2%) from the June 2024 forecast.  Projected Lottery resources are down $.06 million (0.0%) from the June forecast. 

Personal income tax revenue is up $869.7 (4.1%) from the close of session forecast. Corporate tax revenue is up $882.8 (39.6%) from the close of session forecast. General Fund gross revenue is up $1.89 billion (7.5%) from the close of session forecast. Net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $2.43 billion (7.1%) from the close of session forecast. 

It is anticipated at this time that a personal kicker of $987 million will kick for 2025. The corporate kicker is expected to generate $882.8 million for the K-12 education system for 2025.